Ottawa Real Estate October Numbers and Budget 2026

A few interesting developments in Ottawa real estate this week, particularly on the new construction side.

Between October's market numbers, potential reductions in development charges, changes to the foreign buyer ban and several upcoming community launches, I think there's quite a bit worth paying attention to over the next few months.

A Quick Look at October's Numbers

Ottawa recorded 801 residential sales in October, down 13.8% compared to last year.

Average freehold prices came in at $758,582, down 3%, while condominiums averaged $411,486, down 6.3%.

We also finished the month with 3,053 active listings and a 49% sales-to-new-listings ratio, putting us in balanced market territory.

Overall, we're seeing a slower market, although conditions continue to vary quite a bit depending on the neighbourhood and property type.

Could Development Charges Be Cut in Half?

This is one of the more interesting announcements I've seen recently.

Mayor Mark Sutcliffe has indicated that Ottawa is negotiating with the provincial and federal governments to potentially reduce development charges by 50% or more.

For some context, development charges are fees builders pay to municipalities to help fund infrastructure such as roads, water systems and other services needed to support new communities.

These costs ultimately factor into the price of new homes.

A reduction of this magnitude could make a considerable difference to the economics of building in Ottawa.

But here's what I'm particularly interested in.

If builders suddenly have lower development costs, how much of those savings will actually be passed along to purchasers?

I don't think it's reasonable to assume every dollar saved will translate directly into lower prices.

Builders still have land acquisition costs, construction costs, financing expenses and margins to consider. Ultimately, pricing is heavily influenced by what buyers are willing to pay.

That said, in a market where builders are already competing through incentives, I think lower development charges could create an opportunity for more competitive pricing, particularly on future releases.

Nothing has been finalized yet, but this is definitely something I'll be monitoring.

Foreign Buyers Could Be Returning to New Construction

Another announcement from Budget 2026 that I think deserves more attention is the proposed change to Canada's foreign buyer ban.

The federal government is proposing to extend the restrictions on foreign purchases of existing residential properties until 2029, while allowing eligible foreign buyers to purchase newly built homes.

I actually think this could have a meaningful impact on Ottawa.

We have a considerable international presence here, including diplomats, embassy staff and professionals relocating to the city for work.

While some already qualify for exemptions under the existing rules, opening up new construction to a broader group of foreign purchasers could introduce additional demand.

And I think that's particularly interesting when you consider the number of new communities being developed across Ottawa.

More potential purchasers could help builders move inventory and support future projects.

However, there's another side to this.

If we're simultaneously trying to reduce construction costs through lower development charges while introducing additional demand through foreign purchasers, how much of those savings will actually translate into better affordability?

I think that's an important question.

The exemption is still a proposal, and we'll need to see the final legislation, including how Ontario's separate foreign-buyer tax interacts with it.

New Communities Coming to Ottawa

We're also starting to see some movement on upcoming builder launches.

A few projects I'm keeping an eye on:

• Mattamy Trailwest, Kanata South: Approximately 147 village homes and rear-lane townhomes, with a launch expected this November.
• HN Homes / Urbandale Rideau Ridge, Riverside South Area: Approximately 80 detached homes on larger 44 to 60-foot lots.
• Minto Enclave at Trailsedge, Orléans: A planned release of 164 townhomes across several product types.
• Mattamy Summerside South, Orléans: Approximately 290 townhomes and detached homes planned for the first phase, expected in early 2027.

I'm particularly interested in how these communities will be priced relative to existing builder inventory.

With resale activity slowing, builders offering incentives and potential changes to development costs, I think these upcoming releases will give us a better indication of where the new construction market is heading.

So, Should Buyers Wait?

This is where I think things get interesting.

On one hand, we have the possibility of lower development charges, new community launches and potentially more competitive pricing.

On the other hand, we're also seeing proposed policies that could introduce additional demand into the new construction market.

I wouldn't automatically assume that purchasing six months from now will be cheaper than purchasing today.

Some builders may pass along savings, others may not, and certain communities or floor plans could still experience strong demand regardless of broader market conditions.

I also wouldn't overlook existing builder inventory. Completed or nearly completed homes can sometimes offer more negotiating flexibility than future releases, particularly when builders are looking to move remaining inventory.

For resale buyers and sellers, these developments are worth watching as well. New construction is part of the competition, particularly in newer suburban neighbourhoods where buyers can choose between existing homes and comparable builder products.

Overall, I think the next few months will be particularly interesting for Ottawa real estate.

There are quite a few moving parts, and I'll continue sharing what I'm seeing as these projects and policy discussions develop.

For anyone considering new construction, I've put together a resource comparing over 55 communities across Ottawa, along with my 65-page Ottawa New Build Buyer's Guide.